Why Bother Planning In A Chaotic and Unpredictable World?
In his book, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning, strategic planning guru Henry Mintzberg broaches the subject of planning and strategy within a chaotic and somewhat unpredictable world. So, this question is a good one. If the world around us is unpredictable, how can strategic planning help, given that it is based, in part, on an understanding of that world? What's the point?
The answer is quite simple. Strategic planning should take into account that the world is somewhat unpredictable. When you incorporate that fact as an element or factor that needs to be considered so the company can navigate changing waters, you end up with a strategic advantage. What emerges is a strategy that accounts for, and plans for unpredictability.
To use an analogy: Imagine you inherit some land in Florida, a place that is often hit by hurricanes. The problem is that hurricanes are fairly unpredictable, in size, strength, and movement, so you don't know if you will ever be hit by one, and how strong it might be. Now, you could say "Well, it's unpredictable, so we aren't going to build a house in such an unpredictable environment". And basically give up. Or, you can say "Well, we can't predict when or how a hurricane will hit, but we do know that it's unpredictable. So, let's plan for that unpredictability."
So, you build your house taking into account that you "could" be hit. You plan your house to withstand a certain level of hurricane, and you consider things like the cost of hurricane proofing, risk factors, etc.
The outcome is that your plan, if it takes into account the unpredictability of the weather, will result in your being safer in that environment.
It's also worth remembering that while the world often seems unpredictable and chaotic, particularly the business world in a globalized economy, we can make probability statements about what might happen. Remember that there is unpredictability everywhere in life, and the role of planning is to minimize the risks of that unpredictability.